Stock Updates
MTNN: Tracking the 2026 earnings recovery
After severe FX revaluation losses battered their balance sheet, MTN Nigeria is fighting to return to massive profitability. We analyze their latest numbers.
MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (MTNN) has historically been one of the most reliable dividend-paying stocks on the Nigerian Exchange. However, the severe macroeconomic shocks of recent years—specifically the massive devaluation of the Naira—resulted in unprecedented foreign exchange revaluation losses.
Because MTNN held significant dollar-denominated liabilities (tower leases and vendor debts), the cost to service those debts skyrocketed in Naira terms, wiping out their Profit After Tax (PAT) and eroding shareholder equity.
Now, in 2026, the market is aggressively tracking their recovery. Trading at ₦800, is the worst over?
The Operational Juggernaut
If you strip away the FX losses and look purely at their core operations, MTN Nigeria is a juggernaut.
- Data Revenue: Continues to grow at double digits, driven by 4G and 5G expansion. Q1 2026 data revenue hit ₦827.2 billion.
- Fintech (MoMo): Mobile money adoption is accelerating, adding a crucial, high-margin revenue stream that is entirely insulated from telecom price regulations.
- Voice Revenue: While growth is slowing as expected, it remains a massive cash cow.
The Balance Sheet Repair
The central thesis for buying MTNN at ₦800 is the belief that the balance sheet is finally repaired.
Management has spent the last several quarters aggressively restructuring their tower contracts and paying down dollar-denominated debts to mitigate future FX shocks. If the Naira remains relatively stable throughout 2026, those massive “below-the-line” losses will vanish.
When the FX losses stop, the operational cash flow drops straight to the bottom line (PAT), immediately resurrecting the EPS.
The verdict
For patient investors, MTNN presents a classic “turnaround” play. The market heavily discounted the stock due to the wiped-out dividends and negative equity. However, as the 2026 quarters roll in clean of FX shocks, the market will re-price the stock based on its massive, recurring cash generation. For context on what to watch in the broader market, see our Q2 2026 earnings season preview.
