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Naira FX gap falls below 2 per cent: the numbers
The CBN says the spread between official and Bureau de Change naira rates is now below 2 per cent as reserves top $52.5 billion. The data behind the claim.
The Central Bank of Nigeria says the gap between the official naira exchange rate and Bureau de Change rates is now below 2 per cent, the tightest spread since the 2023 FX reforms. The claim came on August 5, 2026, in a statement read at the CBN Fair in Gombe by Acting Director of Corporate Communications Hakama Sidi-Ali, on behalf of Governor Olayemi Cardoso.
The data behind the claim
- The naira closed at N1,362/$ in the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market on Tuesday, August 4, an appreciation from N1,365/$ on Monday, according to CBN data.
- Around August 10 the official rate held near N1,362.55/$, while parallel market quotes ran between N1,410 and N1,425 per dollar in Lagos and Abuja market reports.
- External reserves stood above $52.5 billion as of July 17, which Nairametrics described as the highest level in 17 years. The balance eased to $51.92 billion by July 29, still about 32 per cent above the $39.27 billion recorded a year earlier.
- Daily FX turnover has exceeded $1 billion on some trading days, and interbank turnover jumped 298 per cent to $393.5 million in one session last week, from $98.8 million.
The sub-2 per cent figure refers to the spread between the official window and licensed BDC quotes. Cash hawker rates around the market run a shade wider, so a rate quoted on the street can look different from the official picture. That distinction matters when you are comparing rates.
The reforms doing the work
The spread has narrowed on the back of the measures the CBN lists in its own communications: the unified FX window, the willing buyer, willing seller framework, the B-Match electronic trading system, and a directive forcing International Money Transfer Operators to maintain naira settlement accounts with authorized dealers. Cardoso is targeting $1 billion in monthly diaspora remittances by the end of the year, up from more than $600 million a month, and the gross reserve build of 63 per cent since September 2023 underpins the claim.
The long-run picture: the naira closed 2025 at N1,435.76 per dollar, against N1,535.82 at the end of 2024, with a 2025 annual average of N1,518.38. Each new level in this recovery has been tested by shortages, so the relevant number is not any single close but the durability of the spread.
What to watch
Whether the spread stays below 2 per cent through the next import-heavy quarter, the direction of reserves after the July dip, and the remittance data as the year-end target approaches. The CBN has repeated that it does not target a fixed exchange rate, so these numbers can move in either direction.
Frequently asked questions
Frequently asked questions
Why does the gap between official and parallel rates matter?
A wide gap signals scarcity and invites speculation and round-tripping. A narrow gap means the official window is liquid enough that most demand is met at the listed rate, which is exactly what the CBN wants to demonstrate.
Will the CBN set a fixed exchange rate?
No. Cardoso has said repeatedly that the bank operates a willing buyer, willing seller market and that the rate reflects fundamentals: oil earnings, non-oil exports, foreign direct investment and productivity.
Which rate is the real value of the naira?
The official NFEM rate is the one banks and licensed BDCs use. Street quotes are closer to a spot convenience rate. For planning, track the official close and the BDC spread, not any single WhatsApp rate.
